Andy Burnham has passed the first major electoral challenge of his premiership by securing a vital victory for Labour in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The contest, marked by a strong Green Party challenge, ultimately reaffirmed Labour’s grip on this diverse and politically significant London seat.
What Happened: Labour Holds Holborn and St Pancras
Sagal Abdi-Wali emerged victorious with 45% of the vote, maintaining Labour’s control of the seat previously held by Sir Keir Starmer. Although Labour’s majority shrank to 12.4%, this result is a solid win given the intense competition from the Greens. The by-election came just months after Burnham’s own electoral triumph in Makerfield, reinforcing his image as a leader capable of uniting the broad Labour coalition across different regions.
Holborn and St Pancras is a politically complex constituency, home to students, young professionals, renters, and a significant Muslim population. These demographics have made it a battleground for progressive parties, with the Greens seeing it as fertile ground for expanding their influence. Yet despite their energetic campaign, the Green Party fell short of capturing the seat.
Labour’s Performance in Context
Labour’s decline in vote share was only 3.7 percentage points, considerably less than the average 19.3-point drop observed in previous by-elections under Starmer’s leadership when Burnham was not involved. This suggests a resilience in Labour’s support base in London, possibly boosted by Burnham’s premiership.
The swing from Labour to Green was 13.1 points—significantly lower than the swings the Greens achieved in the 2024 general election and this year’s local elections. It also trailed behind the 26.5-point swing the Greens recorded in Gorton and Denton earlier this year. Notably, the swing was smaller than in the wards within Holborn and St Pancras during May’s local elections, hinting that Labour may be regaining voters lost to the Greens under Starmer.
Why the Green Party’s Gamble Fell Short
Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, put his reputation on the line by contesting this seat. His campaign garnered 32.7% of the vote—the second-best by-election result ever for the Greens. Yet this strong showing failed to translate into victory, marking a significant disappointment for Polanski and his party.
The Greens had hoped to replicate their breakthrough in Gorton and Denton, where they won in a high-turnout contest just months earlier. Holborn and St Pancras, with its youthful and progressive electorate, appeared tailor-made for their left-populist message. However, Polanski’s campaign could not mobilize voters to the same extent as previous Green successes.
This setback compounds ongoing challenges for Polanski and the Greens. His leadership has faced scrutiny amid declining poll numbers and internal party controversies, including a divisive conference motion equating Zionism with racism—passed narrowly without Polanski present. These developments have weakened his standing and raised questions about the party’s strategic direction.
Other Parties: Mixed Fortunes on the Left and Right
The by-election also saw disappointing results for George Galloway and the Workers Party. Once a formidable left-wing campaigner with surprise victories in Labour strongholds, Galloway secured only 1.1% of the vote—his poorest showing in a Westminster election since 2005.
On the right, the Conservatives managed a modest but notable 7% share—down slightly from 2024 but comfortably ahead of the Reform Party, which garnered 5.9%. This marks a relative improvement for the Tories compared to their historic lows in recent by-elections like Gorton and Denton (1.9%) and Makerfield (2.2%).
The newly established Restore Party performed poorly, securing just 2.5% and losing their deposit. Their hardline mass deportation stance struggled to gain traction in a constituency where roughly half the residents were born abroad.
What This Means: Labour’s Resilience and the Road Ahead
Holding a long-standing Labour seat like Holborn and St Pancras should not be underestimated amid the party’s recent struggles. Labour has faced a series of electoral setbacks in formerly safe seats under Starmer’s leadership. Burnham’s ability to stabilize support in London offers a much-needed boost to Labour morale, especially for MPs worried about Green challenges in their own districts.
For the Greens, although they fell short, their capacity to attract significant progressive support remains undeniable. Polanski’s near one-third vote share highlights an enduring appetite for a more radical left-wing alternative within urban Labour heartlands. This suggests potential future opportunities if Labour stumbles.
Burnham currently enjoys a honeymoon period as prime minister, buoyed by positive polling and public goodwill. However, the political landscape is volatile. Upcoming economic challenges, including a tough budget and rising energy costs, may test voter patience and shift allegiances once again.
In this dynamic environment, Labour’s hold on seats like Holborn and St Pancras will be crucial. Meanwhile, the Greens will continue to push for breakthroughs, especially in constituencies with receptive demographics. This by-election signals that while Labour remains dominant for now, the battle for the progressive vote is far from settled.
Key takeaway: Andy Burnham’s premiership begins with a crucial electoral win that stabilizes Labour’s urban base, but the Greens remain a potent force capable of reshaping political dynamics in London’s diverse constituencies. The months ahead will reveal whether Labour can maintain this momentum or if the Greens can convert near-success into lasting power.