The political vultures circling Sir Keir Starmer may be disappointed: a crippling investigation by Parliament’s Privileges Committee remains a remote possibility for now. Even his fiercest Labour critics and rivals, including supporters of Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham, are hesitant to trigger what would amount to a political execution at this stage.
Potential Fallout if Kemi Badenoch’s Motion Advances
However, the stakes escalate dramatically if the prime minister inadvertently sanctions his own downfall by allowing Kemi Badenoch‘s motion accusing him of misleading MPs to pass. Such an outcome could prove catastrophic for Starmer’s leadership.
Committee Composition and Voting Dynamics
The Privileges Committee consists of four Labour MPs, two Conservatives, and one Liberal Democrat, ostensibly giving the government a majority. Yet this theoretical advantage is far from guaranteed. The committee’s unpredictable nature was evident in 2022 when it played a pivotal role in ending Boris Johnson‘s premiership.
One notable example is Alberto Costa, the committee chair and a former solicitor from Scotland, who broke ranks with his Conservative colleagues over the “party-gate” scandal. Johnson condemned the committee as a “kangaroo court” bent on delivering a predetermined guilty verdict.
Labour MPs’ Critical Stance on Government Actions
Ominously for Starmer, Paula Barker, a left-wing Labour MP on the committee, has openly criticized the appointment of Lord Mandelson as US ambassador. In a September radio interview, she voiced her outrage, calling the appointment a “betrayal” that prioritizes party loyalty over public trust.
Barker recalled how Labour welfare rebels faced suspension while Mandelson faced no consequences, branding the situation “absolutely disgusting.” Alongside Barker, committee members include fellow Labour MPs Gill Furniss—known for her Gaza stance—Gareth Snell, and Michael Wheeler. The Conservative members include Costa and Neil Shastri-Hurst, a former soldier, doctor, and barrister, while the Liberal Democrat representative is Anna Sabine.
Government Response and Political Context
Despite the brewing tensions, the prime minister’s team has pushed back forcefully. A No 10 spokesperson dismissed Badenoch’s motion as “a desperate political stunt the week before the May elections.” Meanwhile, Emily Thornberry, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, emphasized the need to avoid duplicating efforts, as her committee prepares to question top Foreign Office officials, including former mandarin Sir Philip Barton and Starmer’s ex-chief of staff Morgan McSweeney.
Given these dynamics, the passage of Badenoch’s motion would represent a seismic political shock. But for now, the likelihood remains slim. Starmer’s position may be challenged, but it is far from doomed.
