Welfare as the Baseline of Indian Politics
Welfare programs have become the unquestioned foundation of Indian politics. The decisive factor in elections today is no longer whether parties provide welfare, but how they build their broader political strategies around it. Voters have grasped this shift for years, while many analysts remain fixated on welfare alone, missing the bigger picture.
The Changing Political Landscape Around Welfare
Political strategist Joshi explains that welfare policies must be understood within the context of the wider coalitions parties craft. For instance, in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) once relied on a delicate balance of welfare delivery, strong support from women voters, Muslim consolidation, and enough backing from Hindu communities. This equilibrium has now fractured, playing a crucial role in the TMC’s defeat to the BJP.
Meanwhile, in neighboring Assam, the BJP’s ascent is not solely fueled by religious rhetoric. It also hinges on a comprehensive welfare framework that includes women’s self-help groups, infrastructure investments like roads, effective state institutions, and the public perception of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as an efficient administrator.
Women: The Powerhouse of Welfare Politics
Women have become central to this evolving welfare architecture. Seen as reliable managers of household finances, women also constitute a voting bloc that often surpasses men in turnout. Their growing political significance is reshaping how welfare programs are designed and implemented.
The Massive Scale and Fiscal Stakes of Welfare Schemes
India’s state governments now operate more than 2,000 cash transfer schemes, reflecting the immense political and financial stakes involved. The latest Ministry of Finance Economic Survey projects that states will spend approximately $18 billion (£13.2 billion) on unconditional cash transfers in 2025-26, with a large portion directed at women.
In just three years, the number of states running these schemes has increased more than fivefold, including in several states already grappling with revenue deficits. This rapid expansion highlights the critical role welfare policies play in contemporary election strategies, even as their impact on electoral outcomes becomes more complex and nuanced.
