Ryanair’s Carbon Emissions Surge 50% Above 2019 Levels, Driving Aviation’s Growing Climate Impact
The European aviation sector is witnessing an alarming rise in carbon dioxide emissions, surpassing pre-pandemic levels despite widespread commitments to decarbonise air travel. At the forefront of this trend is Ryanair, whose projected CO₂ emissions in 2025 have escalated to 16.6 megatonnes. This figure equates to the entire annual carbon output of a country like Croatia and marks a staggering 50% increase compared to 2019. Such growth starkly illustrates the tension between the aviation industry’s expansion and its environmental responsibilities.
Ryanair’s passenger numbers soared to over 200 million in 2025, a significant jump from 140 million in 2019. This surge in demand reflects the growing popularity of low-cost carriers, which have revolutionised European air travel by making flying more affordable and accessible. However, while many airlines have introduced newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft, the overall emissions footprint continues to balloon. The increased frequency of flights driven by soaring passenger numbers negates the gains made through technological improvements, creating a paradox where progress in fuel efficiency is overshadowed by rapid growth in flight volume.
European Aviation’s Expanding Carbon Footprint
Last year, the total carbon emissions from flights departing European airports reached 195 megatonnes of CO₂. This figure represents a 2% increase compared to 2019, confirming that the aviation sector’s environmental impact is not only rebounding but intensifying as the industry recovers from pandemic-induced travel restrictions. The resurgence in air travel demand presents a formidable challenge for policymakers and environmental advocates striving to achieve meaningful emissions reductions within a sector historically reliant on fossil fuels.
Limitations of the Emissions Trading System (ETS)
The European Union and the United Kingdom have implemented the Emissions Trading System (ETS) to regulate and reduce carbon emissions from aviation, but its scope remains limited. The ETS currently applies only to flights within Europe, excluding more carbon-intensive long-haul routes that often cross continents. This exclusion creates a significant loophole in the carbon market, allowing airlines operating lucrative intercontinental flights to avoid paying the full environmental cost of their emissions.
This regulatory gap results in uneven carbon pricing across airlines. For example, carriers like Ryanair, which primarily operate intra-European routes, face higher carbon costs, approximately €50 (£36) per tonne of CO₂ emitted. In contrast, legacy carriers such as Lufthansa pay closer to €20 per tonne due to their mix of flight routes and exemptions. Moreover, some of the highest-emitting long-haul flights, such as the London-New York route that alone generated nearly 1.4 megatonnes of CO₂ in 2025, remain outside the ETS framework entirely.
Advocating for an Expanded Carbon Market
Environmental groups like Transport & Environment (T&E) call for an expansion of the ETS to cover all departing flights from Europe, including long-haul journeys. Extending the carbon market could dramatically increase revenues from carbon pricing, potentially quadrupling the existing €4.1 billion collected by 2030. These additional funds would be crucial for investing in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production and innovative contrail mitigation technologies, both of which are essential to reducing aviation’s climate footprint beyond what aircraft technology alone can achieve.
Fuel Costs Outweigh Climate Policy Impacts on Ticket Prices
Despite ongoing calls for stricter climate policies, the volatility of jet fuel prices has a far greater impact on airline ticket costs. Since the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, fuel prices have nearly doubled compared to pre-conflict levels, adding roughly €90 per passenger on long-haul flights alone. In stark contrast, compliance with sustainable aviation fuel mandates imposes a relatively modest cost of around €3 per passenger.
Giacomo Miele, author of the Transport & Environment report, explains, “Ticket prices are rising because of Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels, not because of the climate measures intended to steer the sector away from them.” This statement highlights a critical misconception: the aviation industry’s financial pressures stem primarily from fuel market instability rather than regulatory costs linked to emissions reductions. The ongoing increase in emissions signals that the aviation sector remains far from genuinely embracing sustainability, underscoring the urgent need to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and accelerate investments in clean aviation technologies.
Ryanair’s Defense: Growth with Improved Efficiency Per Passenger
Ryanair acknowledges that its greenhouse gas emissions have risen but attributes this to its position as Europe’s fastest-growing airline rather than inefficient operations. The airline argues that its fleet expansion prioritises the latest fuel-efficient aircraft and that its business model, based on offering low fares, drives emissions per passenger down.
The company further claims that its growth displaces travel on older, less efficient legacy carriers, which typically have higher emissions per passenger. Ryanair criticizes ETS data as “completely discredited” for excluding long-haul flights and exempting certain airlines from environmental taxes. When considering all flights, Ryanair asserts it achieves lower emissions per passenger kilometer, approximately 64 grams, compared to major European airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France/KLM, and IAG (owner of British Airways).
The Road Ahead: Balancing Growth and Climate Responsibility in European Aviation
The persistent rise in aviation emissions despite technological innovation and policy efforts underscores the complex challenge the sector faces in reconciling growth with climate goals. Expanding carbon pricing mechanisms to include all flights departing Europe appears critical to creating a level playing field and generating the financial resources necessary for transformative investments in sustainable aviation fuels and emissions mitigation technologies.
Without decisive, comprehensive action, Europe risks allowing its aviation sector to become an ever-growing contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, undermining the continent’s ambitious climate targets. The future of sustainable air travel depends on closing regulatory loopholes, incentivising cleaner technologies, and fostering industry-wide accountability for carbon emissions. The choices made today will determine whether European skies remain a vibrant conduit for connection or become a significant obstacle to the global fight against climate change.
