On 7 May 2026, voters in Scotland and Wales head to the polls to elect their new parliamentary governments in Holyrood and the Senedd. As political parties mobilize their campaigns, a revealing BBC poll highlights the critical issues that will shape voter decisions in these pivotal elections.
Top Three Voter Concerns: Economy, Health, and Immigration
The survey identifies three dominant concerns driving voter sentiment across both nations: the state of the economy—especially the soaring cost of living—the quality of health and social care services, and immigration levels. While these issues dominate broadly, subtle differences emerge among demographic groups.
Health and social care resonate strongly with older voters and women, highlighting their prioritization of service quality and accessibility. Conversely, immigration is a pressing concern predominantly among those who supported the Reform party in the 2024 elections. Younger voters frequently emphasize a fourth issue: housing affordability and availability.
Widespread Dissatisfaction Shadows the Incumbent Governments
Across Scotland and Wales, over half of voters believe their economies have worsened in the past year, and roughly half perceive a decline in health services. Positive assessments of either economy or healthcare are scarce. Although a majority recognize some benefits from migration, approximately half advocate for reducing the influx of migrants living in their countries.
Strikingly, even supporters of the SNP and Plaid Cymru—both parties with liberal immigration policies—favor lowering migration levels. This sentiment also extends to Labour voters in both regions, signaling broad public unease.
Who Do Voters Hold Accountable?
This critical mood spells trouble for the incumbent SNP government in Edinburgh and their Labour counterparts in Cardiff. Yet, voter blame does not straightforwardly target devolved administrations. Instead, the UK government in Westminster shoulders significant responsibility in public opinion.
More than two-thirds of voters in both countries attribute the state of the economy either wholly or partially to the UK government. About half similarly hold Westminster accountable for health service conditions, despite NHS management falling under devolved authorities.
SNP supporters especially assign economic responsibility to Westminster, particularly when perceiving deterioration. In Wales, Labour backers also predominantly blame the UK government, despite Labour holding power both locally and nationally.
Funding Disputes and Fiscal Powers
Underlying this blame is a perception that Scotland and Wales receive unfair funding from the UK government. Nationalist voters in both nations express this grievance more intensely, but it also resonates among Welsh Labour supporters.
Devolved governments hold the power to adjust income tax rates independently, offering a tool to address funding shortfalls. The Scottish government has actively increased revenues through this mechanism, while the Welsh government has hesitated to exercise its more limited tax-setting powers.
Nevertheless, a substantial portion of voters in both nations, including many nationalists, resist diverging from England’s tax rates, revealing a reluctance to embrace fiscal autonomy fully.
Welfare Spending and Devolution’s Dilemma
Since gaining responsibility for welfare benefits, the Scottish government has adopted a more generous regime. Still, about half of Scottish and Welsh voters prefer welfare spending to remain aligned with England’s levels. This view spans political allegiances, including nationalist supporters.
Devolution’s promise was to empower Scotland and Wales to tailor policies and be held accountable at the ballot box. Yet, many voters feel their countries’ futures hinge significantly on Westminster’s decisions, even as they hesitate to endorse distinct tax and spending policies.
The Road Ahead: Proving Devolved Governments Matter
With elections looming on 7 May, politicians face the challenge of convincing voters that devolved institutions wield real power and relevance. Success hinges on demonstrating that these governments can address pressing concerns—economy, health, and immigration—effectively and independently.
The BBC-commissioned online survey gathered responses from 2,136 individuals in Scotland and 2,086 in Wales, aged 16 and above. Conducted by Savanta, fieldwork took place between 29 January and 6 February 2026.
