Wes Streeting confronts a formidable challenge as he seeks to secure the leadership of the Labour Party, aiming to follow in the footsteps of Keir Starmer. Despite presenting himself as a credible contender, Streeting struggles to win the confidence of Labour’s grassroots members, who remain unconvinced by his political stance and overall appeal. His uphill battle highlights the complex dynamics within Labour’s membership and the ideological currents shaping the party’s future direction.
Party Members Hold the Key to Labour’s Leadership Future
Since the Labour Party’s time in opposition, Keir Starmer and his cabinet have championed the slogan “Country first, party second” as a strategic attempt to distance themselves from the turmoil that plagued previous Conservative administrations and to restore Labour’s reputation as a responsible governing force. However, the influence of party members remains pivotal. It is these members who ultimately decide the party’s leader, making their support indispensable for any hopeful candidate.
For Wes Streeting, this reliance on party members exposes a critical tension between his leadership ambitions and the preferences of Labour’s base. Streeting’s positioning as a more centrist, Blairite figure clashes with a membership that predominantly leans left, creating a barrier to securing widespread endorsement. This divide underscores the challenge of appealing to a party electorate that values ideological authenticity alongside electability.
A recent survey conducted by Compass, one of Labour’s influential think tanks, sheds light on this disconnect. The poll, carried out just before Labour experienced significant setbacks in local elections, canvassed over 1,000 party members to gauge their preferences for Starmer’s successor. The results were striking: Andy Burnham, the former Mayor of Greater Manchester known for his left-leaning policies and strong connection to Labour’s grassroots, emerged as the clear favourite with 42% support. In stark contrast, Streeting garnered a mere 11% backing, reflecting a substantial gap. Burnham’s favourability rating stood at 44%, more than double Streeting’s 18%, indicating a pronounced preference for candidates perceived as more aligned with traditional Labour values.
Ideological Distance Undermines Streeting’s Appeal
Streeting’s approval ratings are comparable to those of other prominent party figures such as Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband, yet a key distinction remains: both Rayner and Miliband are regarded as more left-leaning, aligning more closely with the party’s soft-left faction. Streeting’s historical ties to the Blairite wing, including his past association with Peter Mandelson and the Progress group, position him distinctly to the right of the party’s centre-left mainstream.
This ideological gap is significant. It suggests that many Labour members distrust candidates they perceive as too centrist or right-leaning, craving leadership that champions the social democratic principles they identify with. In response, Streeting has recently adjusted his rhetoric, adopting a more left-leaning tone to resonate better with the party’s grassroots, who will ultimately decide the leadership outcome from a shortlist approved by Labour MPs.
Labour’s Membership Landscape: A Left-Leaning Base
Research from Queen Mary University of London provides further insight into Labour’s membership profile. Nearly 48% of members describe themselves as “fairly leftwing,” reflecting a party still firmly anchored on the soft left of the political spectrum. This ideological tilt is reinforced by the narrow margins and low voter turnout observed in recent internal contests, such as the deputy leadership election, where left-leaning candidates tend to perform strongly.
Members’ suspicion toward leaders perceived as masking their true political beliefs remains palpable. Keir Starmer entered the leadership with promises in 2020 that many members believe he has since failed to fulfil. This perceived breach of trust has fostered lingering skepticism and disillusionment among the grassroots, who remain vigilant for signs of ideological backsliding or abandonment of Labour’s core values.
Declining Membership and Growing Disillusionment
The party’s internal challenges extend beyond ideology to membership numbers. Since Jeremy Corbyn stepped down and Starmer took over in April 2020, Labour’s membership has declined dramatically, from a high point of 532,046 in 2019 to just 333,235 by early 2024. This sharp drop reflects a wave of defections, with many former members gravitating toward the Green Party, smaller left-wing groups, or disengaging from party politics entirely.
Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University, attributes this exodus largely to dissatisfaction with Starmer’s leadership. He explains, “Many grassroots members have left since the general election, either joining the Greens or simply giving up on party politics. Starmer’s perceived betrayal of his own values has played a big part in this disillusionment.” This erosion of membership not only weakens Labour’s organizational strength but also complicates efforts to unify the party around a new leader.
Can Wes Streeting Bridge the Divide and Win Support?
Political analysts caution Labour’s right wing against complacency. Professor Bale warns, “Those remaining in the party’s membership are predominantly leftwing and socially liberal. The idea that the party’s membership now favours the right is wishful thinking.” This reality underscores the uphill nature of Streeting’s campaign, given that Labour members prioritize ideological alignment alongside leadership qualities.
Nonetheless, Bale offers a cautiously optimistic perspective for Streeting’s prospects. He points out that Labour members are pragmatic and motivated by electability. Starmer’s leadership victory in 2020 over Rebecca Long-Bailey demonstrated that members value the ability to win elections as much as ideological purity. “If Streeting can convince members that he is the candidate most capable of leading Labour to electoral success, he still has a viable path forward despite not being their ideological ideal,” Bale notes.
In summary, Wes Streeting’s quest for Labour leadership encapsulates the broader tensions within the party between pragmatism and principle, centrist appeal and grassroots ideology. His challenge lies not only in bridging the significant ideological divide with Labour members but also in re-energizing a base weary from internal disputes and electoral setbacks. How he navigates these complexities will shape Labour’s direction and influence its ability to mount a credible challenge against the Conservatives in future general elections.
