Wes Streeting faces a steep challenge winning over Labour party members as he vies to succeed Keir Starmer. Despite positioning himself as a leadership contender, Labour’s grassroots remain skeptical of the health secretary’s appeal and ideological alignment.
Party Members Hold the Key to Labour’s Next Leader
The mantra “Country first, party second” has been a rallying cry for Keir Starmer and his cabinet since their time in opposition, aiming to differentiate Labour from the self-inflicted crises of previous Conservative governments. Yet, the importance of party members cannot be underestimated. For Streeting, the divide between his ambitions and members’ preferences poses a significant obstacle.
A recent survey by Compass, conducted just before Labour’s heavy local election setbacks, revealed striking data: among more than 1,000 Labour members, Andy Burnham led as the preferred successor to Starmer with 42% support, while Streeting lagged far behind at just 11%. Burnham also enjoyed a 44% favourability rating, compared to a mere 18% for Streeting.
Ideological Distance Challenges Streeting’s Appeal
Streeting’s ratings closely matched those of Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband, yet both are seen as more left-leaning than Streeting. This ideological gap suggests many members prefer candidates positioned left of centre rather than the Blairite, right-leaning Streeting, who was once closely aligned with Peter Mandelson and the Progress faction.
In response, Streeting has recently shifted his rhetoric further left, attempting to resonate with the party’s base that will ultimately decide the next leader from a shortlist endorsed by MPs.
Labour’s Membership Leans Left, Complicating Streeting’s Path
Research from Queen Mary University of London highlights that nearly 48% of Labour members identify as “fairly leftwing,” reflecting a party still anchored on the soft left. The narrow results and low turnout in Labour’s deputy leadership election further underline this tendency.
Members remain wary of leaders who appear to mask their true ideological stance. Starmer’s 2020 leadership promises, which many felt were broken after he took office, have fostered a lingering distrust among the grassroots.
Declining Membership and Growing Disillusionment
Since Starmer replaced Jeremy Corbyn in April 2020, Labour’s membership has plunged from a peak of 532,046 in 2019 to 333,235 by the start of 2024. Many defected to the Greens, other smaller parties, or abandoned party affiliation altogether.
Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University, explains, “Many grassroots members have left since the general election, either joining the Greens or simply giving up on party politics. Starmer’s perceived betrayal of his own values has played a big part in this disillusionment.”
Can Streeting Win Over the Left-Leaning Base?
Bale warns those on Labour’s right wing against complacency: “Those remaining are predominantly leftwing and socially liberal. The idea that the party’s membership now favors the right is wishful thinking.”
Nevertheless, Bale offers a glimmer of hope for Streeting. “Labour members want to win elections. Starmer’s 2020 victory over Rebecca Long-Bailey shows they back electability as much as ideology. If Streeting convinces members he can lead Labour to victory, he still has a viable path forward despite not being their ideological ideal.”
