The UK has escalated its national terror threat level to Severe following a chilling attack where two Jewish men were stabbed in north London. This move signals a heightened risk, warning that a terrorist attack is highly likely.
Decoding the UK’s Five Terror Threat Levels
The government uses a five-tier system to communicate the risk of terrorist activity across the country. The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) holds the responsibility for assessing intelligence and determining the appropriate threat level. These levels are:
- Low – An attack is highly unlikely.
- Moderate – An attack is possible but not likely.
- Substantial – An attack is likely.
- Severe – An attack is highly likely. (Current UK level)
- Critical – An attack is imminent or already underway.
Who Is Behind the Threat Level Decisions?
JTAC operates from MI5’s headquarters in London, bringing together top counter-terrorism experts from 16 government departments and agencies. This collaborative team integrates intelligence from police forces, security services, and government bodies to evaluate threats comprehensively.
JTAC maintains a close partnership with MI5’s international counter-terrorism branch, which leads the investigations into terrorist plots targeting the UK. This enables swift and coordinated responses to emerging threats.
Factors Shaping the UK’s Threat Level
When setting the threat level, JTAC rigorously examines:
- The current scale and nature of terrorist activity domestically and abroad, comparing it with past incidents.
- The known capabilities of terrorist groups, including attack methods derived from intelligence or previous attacks.
- The terrorists’ objectives and potential targets, assessing how they might execute their plans.
- The immediacy of any planned attacks, gauging how close they are to being carried out.
Evolution of the Threat Levels Over Time
The UK first unveiled this threat level system in 2006. Since then, the alert has predominantly hovered at Severe, never dropping below Substantial. The highest tier, Critical, has been activated only four times:
- August 2006 – In response to a foiled plot targeting transatlantic flights.
- June 2007 – Following an attempted car bomb attack at Glasgow Airport.
- May 2017 – After the devastating Manchester Arena bombing.
- September 2017 – Following the Parsons Green District line attack.
After the Parsons Green attack, the level was reduced to Severe within days and remained there until November 2019, when it dropped to Substantial.
The threat level surged back to Severe in November 2021 after two high-profile incidents: the murder of Conservative MP Sir David Amess in October and a car explosion outside a Liverpool hospital on Remembrance Sunday. It was lowered again to Substantial in February 2022.
